NFL Betting Tips You Should Never Ignore
So what if the 2019 NFL regular season is already in full swing? It’s never too late to start working on a
betting plan that could literally net you thousands of dollars. By this point of the season, NFL bettors
probably have identified the team that provides the most value to them, the matchup combinations and
the possible game totals, as well as the teams they should avoid.
With that thought in mind, it is time to take a look at some NFL hot tips that you just can’t miss if you
want to start cashing big this season.
Money Lines, Money Lines, Money Lines
If you like making straight-up moneyline NFL picks, then here is a stat that every sports bettor must keep
in mind. Every season, SU favorites win a whopping 69.7 percent of the time (184-80) and this simply
means that if you bet the favorite each and every week, you’re going to have a much better chance of
Taking that thought another step further, you should probably look t back home favorites to win
straight-up more often than not seeing as home SU favorites won 71.6 percent of the games last season.
Even road favorites won 66.6 percent of the time, so there’s a reason why moneyline favorites usually
are the best way to cash.
Never Let Pass a Value-Packed Dog
Here’s another scenario that no bettor should ignore: When it comes to finding value when betting
against the spread (ATS) you need to start looking for underdogs, no matter where they play, to cover
the chalk as a more value-packed pick.
Based on the 2017 and 2018 NFL season numbers, underdogs covered 48% of the time, and this simply
means that if you can find dogs with real value – and a more profitable return on your investment, then
you need to back them as much as possible. Now, don’t get me wrong, no one cashed in more against-
the-spread than ATS favorites. Thee teams covered the chalk 52.5 percent of the time in the last two
seasons of pro football.
SU Success Begets ATS Success
Only five teams won 75 percent or more of their regular season games (The L.A Rams (.813), New
Orleans Saints (.813 and the Chicago Bears (.750) in the NFC, and the Chargers (.750) and Chiefs (.750) in
Only one team from that list entered the elite group of Top 3 best ATS record in the league, and it was
the Chicago Bears, who closed the season 12-5 ATS (70.6 percent). The Kansas City Chiefs went 10-7-1
(58.8 percent), followed by the New Orleans Saints and L.A Chargers, who went 10-8 ATS (55.6 percent).
From all the teams that managed to record double-digit victories a year ago, Seattle (10-6 SU) and New
England (11-5 SU) managed to rack up losing ATS records with both playoff participants going an 10-5
(66.7 percent) and 12-7 (63.2 percent) ATS.
Four teams with losing SU records managed to record winning ATS records in 2018. The Cleveland
Browns (7-8 SU, 10-6 ATS), Washington Redskins (7-9 SU, 9-7 ATS), Detroit Lions (6-10 SU, 9-7 ATS) and
Cincinnati Bengals (6-10 SU, 9-7 ATS) and covered the chalk more often than not, but keep in mind that’s
only happens on rare occasions.
So, in essence, teams that are generally in the midst of successful campaigns doesn’t necessarily have a
high probability of cover the chalk more often than teams with a losing record.